This month we look at: lettuce prices, when to reprice your menu, avoiding the back-to-school slump, inflation and national restaurant sales trends from July.
Ever wonder what actually happens to prices after a massive parasite outbreak rips through a food category? Turns out we have the answer. Romaine prices have dropped 64% from their summer peak, and iceberg and romaine hearts have followed a similar pattern, thanks in no small part to the cyclosporiasis outbreak that dominated headlines for the last few months.
Combine that with the usual August reality check (families shifting spending back to school supplies, teen staff heading back to class and summer tourism starting to cool off) and you've got a month that rewards operators who are watching their numbers closely.
We're digging into all of it in this month's edition: what's actually happening with lettuce prices right now, a practical way to think through repricing a menu item without turning off guests and how to get ahead of the seasonal slowdown curve before it hits your bottom line.
And speaking of getting ahead of the curve, we're hosting a live session with MarginEdge CEO, Bo Davis, talking about AI in restaurants on Tuesday, August 18th, at 1:00 PM ET. Join us for a look at how AI is changing restaurant technology, what’s already possible today and what operators should be thinking about next. Register for your spot here!
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Wishing you all a strong finish to summer and a smooth transition into fall! We'll see you in September.
- Rachel & the MarginEdge team
P.S. If you took our very, very accurate Restaurant Personality Type quiz, your August mantras are here!
The trailing 4-week (28-day) average of year-over-year (YOY) sales for Fast Casual came in at +2.76% and Full Service at +1.23% at the end of July compared to 2025 sales.
Food costs averaged 29% of sales last month, a slight decrease from June.
Good news for once (kind of?): lettuce prices were on their way up this summer and have since come down just as sharply. According to MarginEdge's Price Checker, here's where things stand right now:
The timing lines up with the cyclosporiasis outbreak that's been in the headlines since June (officially started in May), which investigators tied to lettuce and salad greens. Officially on July 17th, the CDC recalled all iceberg lettuce from Taylor Farms de Mexico.
It's worth acknowledging that even with prices low, some guests may still be a little wary of salads after a summer of outbreak headlines, whether or not that wariness is fully rational at this point.
If you're looking to lean less on lettuce for a bit, a few easy swaps:
Shredded cabbage or pickled napa slaw holds up well on sandwiches, burgers and tacos and brings its own crunch
Kale or spinach can anchor a heartier salad and read as a deliberate choice rather than a substitution
Grain bowls (farro, quinoa, orzo) sidestep the whole conversation while still feeling like a lighter option
None of these need to be permanent menu changes, just useful options to have ready if you're feeling out your guests' appetite for salad this month.
The MarginEdge Price Checker (labs.marginedge.com/price-checker) is a free tool that shows how restaurant ingredient costs are trending nationally and by region, using aggregated, anonymized data pulled from 12,000+ restaurants and 35,000+ vendors on MarginEdge's platform. Anyone can search a specific item to see its current median price and recent trend, or browse the Price Index to see the biggest movers across the industry that month.
L'Opossum | Richmond, VA
"Romaine spiked hard this summer and I held off repricing. Now it's dropped 64% from where it peaked; did I make the right call?" — a question we've gotten some version of from a handful of operators this month.
Here's the honest answer: it depends on one thing first.
Step 1: Figure out if you're dealing with a blip or a shift.
|
A blip |
A shift |
|
|---|---|---|
|
What it looks like |
A weather event, a short supply gap, a disease outbreak working through the supply chain |
A multi-year cycle, a structural shortage, sustained herd/crop decline |
|
How long it lasts |
Weeks to a couple months |
12+ months, sometimes years |
|
Right move |
Ride it out where you can, since the correction is already underway |
Adjust your menu or pricing; this isn't going back down soon |
Step 2: If it's a shift, pick your lever.
Once you know you're not waiting this out, you've really only got three levers, and they're not mutually exclusive:
Step 3: Set a reminder to check again.
Whatever you decide isn't permanent. Ingredient costs keep moving, so build a habit of checking your highest-cost menu items against current invoice prices at least once a quarter, more often for anything as volatile as lettuces have been lately.
The bottom line: repricing isn't "add a dollar and hope." It's a decision that deserves the same rigor as any other cost control move, and it starts with knowing whether you're fighting a blip or adjusting to a new normal.
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Roots Natural Kitchen | Multiple locations
The July 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is in, and indicates the following month-over-month changes in food inflation:
The headline number: overall CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June, with energy prices dropping again (down 1.5%) while shelter accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase. Year over year, total inflation is at 3.4%.
On the food side, there's a small callback to our Item to Watch this month: the lettuce index alone fell 16.4% in July, which lines up with the pullback we've been tracking on the Price Checker. That drop was offset by declines in meat, poultry and dairy prices too, keeping the overall food-at-home number essentially flat for the month.
Tl;dr - Food-away-from-home is still running hotter than food-at-home (3.4% vs. 2.7% YOY), meaning restaurant menu prices continue to outpace grocery store prices, even in a month where a few individual grocery items got cheaper.
Wasabi | Tyson's Corner, VA
If your sales dip a little once the school buses start running again, you're not imagining it (and you're not alone). Family dining budgets shift back toward school supplies and activities, vacation season winds down and in a lot of markets, your own team feels it too as student staff head back to class or cut their availability.
Here are a few ways operators can get ahead of it instead of just riding it out:
The takeaway: the slowdown is predictable, which means it's one of the more plannable dips of the year, if you treat it that way instead of getting caught off guard.
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