MarginEdge Blog

The Board: January 2026

Written by MarginEdge | Jan 16, 2026 2:22:35 PM

This month we look at: green onion prices, reviewing your budgets for a new year, an argument for Galentine's Day, inflation and national restaurant sales trends from December.

Hello from 2026! I hope you all had a busy holiday season (followed by a well-deserved relaxing week after). Judging by the sales numbers from December, it's safe to say last year ended on a high note!

We're quickly approaching February, which is important for two big reasons: Super Bowl Sunday and this year's restaurant Super Bowl Saturday, Valentine's Day. With two big back-to-back weekends, be sure to carve out some extra time (and extra love) for yourself and your teams. We've also included a section below on an argument for Galentine's Day, so be sure to scroll down to check it out.

Next month is also Black History Month, so if you know of or help run a Black-owned restaurant business that sells food or retail items online, please shoot me a message so we can include you in our Black History Month Gift Guide

Know someone who would like to join our 107,754 subscribers? Forward to a friend or send them this link.

Wishing you all a great start to the year!

- Rachel & the MarginEdge team

P.S. If you took our very, very accurate Restaurant Personality Type quiz, your January mantras are here!


 

MONTHLY SALES METRICS & UPDATE

The trailing 4-week (28-day) average of year-over-year (YOY) sales for Fast Casual came in at +5.18% and Full Service at +3.64% at the end of December compared to 2024 sales.

Food costs averaged 29% of sales last month, representing a +1% increase from the average in November.

Dig into the full report.

ITEM TO WATCH

Green onions

Scallions, green onions, junior-varsity leeks - whatever you call them, they're one of the most widely used and beloved alliums at our disposal. And yet, sadly, these typically mild-mannered magic makers have been making us cry lately, thanks to some pretty dramatic price increases.

The median price per pound for green onions increased by +113% over the last six months and by +110% compared to 12 months ago for MarginEdge clients. The current median price per pound is a whopping $7.12

Recent heavy rains in Mexico and the West Coast are to blame, impacting quality and overall supply. The good news is that green onions have a fairly rapid growth cycle, meaning prices should be coming down in the coming months. The bad news is that if extreme rain continues, so will the increased pricing. This weather has also increased prices for celery, iceberg and romaine lettuce, as well as red bell peppers. 

Oak & Ola | Tampa, FL

ASK [me] ANYTHING

How can I make sure my budgets are accurate for the new year?

New year, new budgets! There's no time like the start of a new year to assess whether or not your budgeting plan is working, or if you have any opportunities for improvement. Ideally, you'd want to be assessing your budget multiple times a year, but no one can deny that the start of a new year or month or quarter is a great reminder/kick in the pants to sit down and do it. Conducting a restaurant budget review for the new year involves a thorough evaluation of your financial performance and planning for the months ahead. Here’s a step-by-step guide to help you:

1. Analyze last year’s financial data

  • Review your profit and loss statements, balance sheets, and cash flow reports.
  • Identify trends in revenue, expenses, and profit margins.
  • Pinpoint areas where you overspent or underspent.

2. Evaluate fixed and variable costs

  • Fixed costs: Rent, utilities, insurance, and salaries.
  • Variable costs: Food, beverages, and supplies.
  • Look for opportunities to renegotiate contracts or find cost-effective suppliers.

3. Assess menu profitability

  • Use a menu engineering analysis to identify high-profit and low-profit items.
  • Remove or adjust pricing for underperforming dishes.
  • Focus on promoting high-margin items.

4. Set realistic revenue goals

  • Base your goals on historical data, market trends, and any planned changes (e.g., new menu items or promotions).
  • Break down goals by month, week, or even day for better tracking.

5. Plan for seasonal fluctuations

  • Account for busy and slow periods in your cash flow planning. For example, the World Cup is coming to many North American cities this summer. If your restaurant is near one of them, plan for the influx of tourists!
  • Allocate funds for marketing during slower months to drive traffic.

6. Incorporate contingency funds

  • Set aside a portion of your budget for unexpected expenses, such as equipment repairs or emergency staffing needs (like a pick-me-up Dunkin' when you really need one).

7. Engage your team

  • Share budget goals with your management team to ensure alignment.
  • Encourage staff to contribute ideas for cost savings and revenue generation.

8. Use technology

  • Leverage accounting software or restaurant management tools to track expenses and revenue in real time.
  • Automate reports to monitor performance against your budget.

9. Review and adjust regularly

  • Schedule monthly or quarterly budget reviews to stay on track.
  • Be flexible and adjust your budget as needed based on actual performance.

💬 Ask [me] anything!

Really. Each month we’ll take a look at the questions we get and answer one here. Have a question about our product, accounting, or restaurant operations in general? 💌 Email me or message us on our social media channels.

Wasabi | Tyson's Corner, VA

THE ECONOMY

Inflation

The December 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is in, and indicates the following month-over-month changes in food inflation:

  • Overall Food Inflation: Up at 0.7% from November, and is up 3.1% YOY.
  • Food At Home: Up 0.7% from November, and is up 2.4% YOY. 
  • Food Away from Home: Up 0.7% from November, and is up 4.1% YOY.
  • Limited Service Meals: Up 0.6% from November, and by 3.3% YOY.
  • Full Service Meals: Up 0.8% from November, and by 4.9% YOY.

Overall, inflation came in at 2.7%, the same as in November. Food and rent were the two strongest contributors to the overall numbers. Analysts do not expect a rate cut this month; however, it's likely they are still on the table for later this year.

Tl;dr - Grocery and restaurant prices rose at the same rate last month, both up YOY.

Acropolis Greek Taverna | Tampa, FL

'TIS THE SEASON

An argument for Galentine's Day

While Valentine's Day is often the headline act for February, February 13th, affectionately known as Galentine’s Day, offers a massive opportunity for restaurants to capture a different kind of crowd. It’s all about "ladies celebrating ladies," meaning larger groups, higher check averages and a more festive atmosphere (unless you count nervous daters and the potential for a failed proposal as "festive," of course).

And this year, with Valentine's Day falling on a Saturday, Galentine's Day falls on that primo Friday night spot. So, we put together a few ways you can turn this pop-culture holiday into another profitable February night for your restaurants

1. Create shareable "For the Table" specials

Forget the intimate prix fixe for two. Galentine’s is about community. Design a family-style menu or large-format appetizers that encourage sharing. Think impressive charcuterie boards, fondue sets or tiered dessert towers. Bonus points if your menu item names play into the theme like "How-cute-are-we Boards" (ok, maybe a stretch but you get the idea).

2. Design a "Besties" cocktail menu

Beverage sales drive margins. Create a limited-run drink menu featuring fun, themed cocktails or mocktails. Offer pitcher specials or "mimosa flights" to cater to groups. Clever names again are a must here, so lean into pop culture references that spark conversation. 

3. Incentivize larger parties

Since this holiday is about friend groups, think about offering a complimentary appetizer or glass of champagne for tables of four or more. This encourages guests to bring their whole squad, filling your seats faster.

4. Make it Instagram-worthy 

These groups will want to document their night. Set up a simple photo wall with good lighting or add festive touches like branded napkins or fresh flowers to the tables. If your space looks good online, your guests do your marketing for you.

5. Bring the entertainment

Amping up the party atmosphere is a must for Galentine's Day, so consider hiring a DJ or even renting a karaoke machine for your guests. Entertainment can be a strong part of making a welcoming and memorable atmosphere for your guests.

Will everyone remember how good the fried goat cheese bites were? Maybe. But you can guarantee they won't forget when the entire restaurant joined in to bring that final karaoke chorus of All Too Well (10 Minute Version) home. Leaving a lasting, positive memory is one of the best ways to keep bringing guests back time and time again.

6. And don't forget about the at-home celebrators 

When you're packed, don't just kiss that revenue goodbye. Think about catering or take-out packages to cater to the girlies who want to host at home, like a DIY cocktail kit or dessert sampler boxes.

 

What's [me] into


😂 WHAT WE'RE LAUGHING AT

    • Sian Almond Cooks - Chefs' least favorite jobs in the kitchen (number three has been known to produce a few tears).

📖 WHAT WE'RE READING

    • NRA - Restaurant performance index - The NRA's Restaurant Performance Index rose 0.2% in November, as restaurant operators became somewhat more optimistic about sales growth in the months ahead.

🎧 WHAT WE'RE LISTENING TO

    • A Deeper Dive - This episode with Martha Olmos, chief operating officer with Damm Fine Restaurant Group, a franchisee of Dave’s Hot Chicken and Blaze Pizza, discusses how franchisees can spot and invest in winning brands.

    • Restaurant Strategy - Google's just sooo 2025. Today, everyone's using ChatGPT, which means optimizing your website for AI search is now more important than ever. This episode with Chip Klose runs through everything you need to know.