This month we look at: strawberry and chocolate prices, five financial metrics operators should be watching, tips for surviving thriving in the winter, inflation and national restaurant sales trends from January.
It's February! Which means it's time to celebrate football, love and Black History Month! While we can't help much with ensuring positive celebrations for the first two (trust me, I'm a Pats fan), we can help with Black History Month thanks to our handy-dandy gift guide, celebrating Black-owned and operated restaurant businesses all month long. Head here to check it out and grab something nice for a friend, loved one or even yourself!
After a very, very cold January, we've got a few sections below to help warm us up as we head towards brighter and hopefully less frigid days ahead, starting with five financial metrics operators should regularly track and a winter restaurant survival guide.
Finally, as many of you will be heading into one of the busiest Valentine's Day weekends in recent memory, we wish you all the luck in the world for smooth shifts, big tips and full dining rooms! Thank you for all that you do to help make magic for your communities and to keep love alive.
And if you need a laugh, we recorded a very special album called "Love Songs from the Walk-In," just for the occasion, which you can listen to here.
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Wishing you all a profitable and safe February!
- Rachel & the MarginEdge team
P.S. If you took our very, very accurate Restaurant Personality Type quiz, your February mantras poems are here!
The trailing 4-week (28-day) average of year-over-year (YOY) sales for Fast Casual came in at +4.97% and Full Service at -2.21% at the end of January compared to 2025 sales.
Food costs averaged 28% of sales last month, representing a -1% increase from the average in December.
A quintessential Valentine's Day pairing, strawberries and chocolate. Last year, we looked at chocolate in our February 2025 edition of The Board and found that prices were already increasing due to limited supply from extreme weather, bean disease, smuggling and land lost to more profitable businesses. Unfortunately, it seems those conditions have continued to make chocolate even more expensive since then.
For MarginEdge clients, median semi-sweet chocolate chip prices are relatively flat at $5.33 per pound compared to six months ago, up +16% from 12 months ago, and +47% from 24 months ago.
Strawberries, on the other hand, have seen lower prices since a peak in December due to poor weather and supply impacting growing regions in California and Texas. Prices could increase in the near future due to a recent cold snap in Florida, so we're not getting our chocolate-covered hopes up just yet.
For MarginEdge clients, median fresh strawberry prices are up +30% at $4.46 per pound compared to six months ago, and relatively flat compared to 12 months ago.
Cocky Rooster | Richmond, VA
With tax season soon approaching, it’s a great time to think about how you're keeping a close eye on your financial health. Knowing the right metrics to track on a routine basis can help you identify inefficiencies, control costs, and maximize profitability. We recently spoke with our friend Thomas Fontes, owner of Accounting Services Unlimited (ASU), based in New Orleans, Louisiana, about five key financial metrics every restaurant operator should monitor regularly:
Keep a close watch on your food and beverage costs, as prices can fluctuate weekly or even daily. Regularly update your numbers to reflect current costs, and ensure portion control and pricing strategies are in place to maintain a COGS ratio below 30%. This helps you stay profitable even when ingredient prices rise unexpectedly.
Think of your P&L as your financial scoreboard. It tracks where every dollar is spent, from payroll to food costs, and helps you identify why your net profit fluctuates. By reviewing your P&L monthly, you can make data-driven adjustments to improve profitability and avoid relying on guesswork.
Labor costs should ideally fall between 25-30% of sales. Use your P&L to monitor payroll, identify overtime trends, and adjust staffing levels as needed. Overstaffing or understaffing can hurt your bottom line, so maintaining flexibility with your team is key to operational efficiency.
ROI can take time, especially for new restaurants. Whether you’re funded by investors, loans, or personal savings, understanding your ROI timeline is crucial. Investing in your team and marketing efforts can accelerate returns, especially if you create buzz before opening your doors.
If your COGS are around 29-32%Your gross profit margin should be between 68-71%. If it dips below 60%, it’s a red flag that your expenses, particularly COGS, are too high. Use your P&L to pinpoint problem areas and make adjustments to protect your profitability.
Track the number of customers against your COGS to identify issues and ensure your revenue covers fixed costs and desired profit margins. By maintaining a healthy balance between COGS and customer volume, operators can identify waste or inefficiencies and make informed adjustments to improve profitability. Once you’ve got that number down, everything else makes a little more sense.
When your bank deposits are the same, but you see your delivery man coming more often, something’s gone wrong. So watch for red flags like increased food deliveries without matching revenue growth or excessive food waste. These can indicate poor portion control or a lack of oversight.
For more details, check out our blog with Thomas's take here!
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The Local | Fallston, MD
The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is in, and indicates the following month-over-month changes in food inflation:
Full Service Meals: Unchanged from December, and up by 4.7% YOY.
Overall, inflation came in at 2.4%, a little less than in December. Energy, including fuel oil, showed the largest decrease of all items.
Tl;dr - Inflation was slightly cooler last month, grocery and restaurant prices both are still up YOY, but lower than last month.
Cocky Rooster | Richmond, VA
Most of the country experienced some of the coldest weather on record last month, including record-breaking snow amounts, ice and far too many snow days for any parents out there. Funny how the things we loved as kids don't always hit the same in adulthood. Even Florida went through a recent cold snap, forcing restaurant sales (and iguanas?) to take a little nose-dive due to the cold.
We've put together a quick guide to preparing and thriving when winter weather hits, and sales start to slump with the help of hospitality veteran and Restaurant Strategy Podcast host Chip Klose. Here are his five tips:
Don’t wait until the first snowstorm to figure out your next move. Develop a seasonal playbook with clear protocols and procedures for handling bad weather. This could include staffing adjustments, special promotions, or operational changes. Having a plan ready ensures you can act quickly and confidently when winter weather strikes.
Combat reduced foot traffic by offering pre-sold, ready-to-cook meal kits for customers to enjoy at home. These kits can include comfort foods like roast chicken, lasagna, or tenderloin, complete with simple heating instructions. Promote them through email, social media, and in-store conversations, and set up an easy online ordering system. With the right marketing, these kits can generate significant revenue during slow weekends.
Treat winter like a football game, meaning you should always have multiple plays in your back pocket. For example, if a snowstorm is forecasted, pivot to promoting take-and-bake kits or other pre-planned offers before the storm hits. Use email campaigns, social media, and in-person conversations to drum up business. If one strategy doesn’t work, huddle with your team and call a new play to keep sales moving.
If you can swing it, you can ensure your team’s safety and availability by booking nearby hotel rooms for key staff during snowstorms. This allows them to avoid dangerous commutes while still being able to work. Negotiate discounted rates with local hotels and consider letting staff bring family members along. This does three things: your staff won’t have to worry about driving on slick roads, they can still make money and won’t miss a paycheck, and customers have somewhere to go if they’re getting stir-crazy at home.
Give customers a reason to brave the cold with special, limited-time offerings. Instead of relying on discounts, focus on unique experiences like seasonal tasting menus, hyper-local dishes, or exclusive events. For example, a Northern Italian restaurant could offer a roast suckling pig special every night in January, available on a first-come, first-served basis. These exclusive offerings not only attract diners but can also command higher price points.
Remember, the only true failure is a failure to plan. So even if it's been a few years since you've seen this much snow (or ever!), having a proactive plan in place can help ride out the cold while we wait for Spring.
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