December 19, 2025
This month we look at: butter prices, what your website has to have to bring in guests, a hot 2026 restaurant trend, inflation and national restaurant sales trends from November.
Well, folks, we made it to the end of 2025! Safe to say, this year kept us all on our toes. And while the uncertainty throughout the year might've been hectic and intense at times, it also allowed us to learn how to be more flexible and resilient (and how to write better ChatGPT prompts), which is never a bad thing.
The holidays are in full swing, which means it's time to check out our 2025 Holiday Gift Guide! Check out the list and be sure to grab some goodies for a loved one, or even just yourself. It's been a year, you've earned it!
Lastly, thank you to all who donated to our match campaign with Emma's Torch - we're so excited to announce we raised over $16k for their campaign for their new Silver Spring, MD cafe! This would not have been possible without your support and we're always so amazed and humbled by how this industry (really, it's more like a community) shows up for each other.
While working at MarginEdge, I've travelled all over the country and have met operators from all kinds of operations. Single units, multi units, fine dining, QSR and everything in between. No matter where you come from or what kind of restaurant you work in, the spirit of hospitality and service is consistent throughout. And (not to get tooo mushy), it's a really beautiful thing to witness and be a part of.
We've been doing this newsletter now for just over three years, and I want to thank all of you for reading, sharing and replying every month. We know this time of year is busier than hell for many, and while you're pulling out all the stops to make magic and memories for your guests, it can often come at the expense of making that same magic with your own loved ones. We see you, we support you and we thank you for all that you sacrifice and do!
Happy holidays, and I'll catch you all in 2026!
Know someone who would like to join our 107,272 subscribers? Forward to a friend or send them this link.
- Rachel & the MarginEdge team
P.S. If you took our very, very accurate Restaurant Personality Type quiz, your December mantras are here!
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MONTHLY SALES METRICS & UPDATE
The trailing 4-week (28-day) average of year-over-year (YOY) sales for Fast Casual came in at +3.4% and Full Service at +0.6% at the end of November compared to 2024 sales.
Food costs averaged 28% of sales last month, representing a -1% drop from the average in October.
ITEM TO WATCH
Butter
Watch out, I Can't Believe It's Not Butter, real butter prices are making a comeback - or, come down, rather. Even if spreadable or sprayable margarine is more your thing (have you even lived if you've never sprayed it directly into your mouth at least once? No, no you haven't), it might be more cost-effective to reach for the real stuff this month.
Thanks to good old-fashioned oversupply, prices for butter are at their lowest point in years. Driven mostly by our dairy friends from down unda', what's good for consumers now could potentially lead to trouble for producers down the line, as lower prices mean fewer profits for the time being.
For MarginEdge customers, the median price per pound of unsalted butter last week was $2.52, which has decreased -27% from 6 months ago, and -31% from 12 months ago.
So go ahead, use that extra pound of butter. It makes everything taste better and now it won't hurt your food costs.
Cocky Rooster | Richmond, VA
ASK [me] ANYTHING
What does my restaurant's website need to have to actually bring in guests?
Your website is often the first place hungry guests look when deciding where to eat. It's basically your 24/7 host, so if it's slow, confusing, or outdated, you could be losing diners before they even reach your door.
To turn curious visitors into confirmed reservations, your site needs to provide the right information quickly while also being optimized for search engines (because no amount of fancy photography will matter if they can't find you first!). Here are the essential elements every restaurant website should have.
Key restaurant website elements to get guests in the door:
- Mobile-first design: With over 80% of dining searches happening on mobile, your site must be responsive and load quickly on smartphones. Keep the design mobile-friendly because if potential guests have to pinch and zoom to find your hours, they'll likely move on. Ain't nobody got time for that.
- Text-based menu: While PDF menus are easier to update and upload, search engines can't easily read them, which harms your SEO. An HTML-based menu is searchable, mobile-friendly and helps you rank for specific dishes like "best truffle risotto in Chicago."
- Clear calls-to-action (CTAs): Don't make visitors search for the "Book Now" button. Place your reservation and online ordering links in a prominent location, like the header or a sticky footer that remains visible as they scroll.
- High-quality visuals: You know the saying, "you eat with your eyes first"? Professional photography is essential. Use well-lit images of your signature dishes and dining space to create an emotional connection and entice potential guests.
- NAP consistency: Make sure your Name, Address, and Phone number (NAP) are easy to find, usually in the footer, and are identical to your Google Business Profile listing, which absolutely helps with SEO and making it easier for guests to get to you.
- Local keywords: Naturally include local terms in your website copy. Instead of "Italian Restaurant," use phrases like "Authentic Italian dining in the West Loop." Advertising with neighborhood-specific keywords helps guests find you more easily, and helps tell your brand story as a part of your community - a win-win! You may also want to optimize for GEO (aka search on LLMs) by using search intent phrases (think questions, not just keywords) to improve your ranking there!
💬 Ask [me] anything!
Really. Each month we’ll take a look at the questions we get and answer one here. Have a question about our product, accounting, or restaurant operations in general? 💌 Email me or message us on our social media channels.
The Local | Fallston, MD
THE ECONOMY
Inflation
The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is in, and indicates the following month-over-month changes in food inflation:
- Overall Food Inflation: Up 2.6% YOY.
- Food At Home: Up 1.9% YOY.
- Food Away from Home: Up 3.7% YOY.
- Limited Service Meals: Up 3.0% YOY.
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Full Service Meals: Up 4.3% YOY.
Overall, inflation came in at 2.7%, much lower than October. Month over month data was not collected during October and November due to the government shutdown, which is why we only have numbers for YOY changes. These numbers were much cooler than expected, but with higher unemployment numbers analysts predict another rate cut in the first part of 2026.
Tl;dr - Grocery prices significantly decreased last month, while restaurant prices stayed about the same.
Oak & Ola | Tampa, FL
'TIS THE SEASON
2026 Restaurant trend: Subscription dining
Subscription dining models are pretty much what they sound like: programs where customers pay a recurring fee (usually monthly or yearly) for exclusive perks, services or goodies. Instead of seeing each visit as a one-off sale, this model builds a lasting connection, transforming casual customers into loyal community members.
Think of it as a Netflix or gym membership, but for your restaurant. The goal is to offer consistent value that keeps diners hooked and excited to return. These programs can be as simple as a "bottomless coffee" subscription or as elaborate as an all-access VIP dining club. Chains like Panera with their Unlimited Sips Club have proven to be wildly successful, and it offers restaurants a way to earn more steady revenue when consumer habits continue to keep our heads on a swivel.
Here are a few subscription model ideas, who they work best for and how they can boost your profitability:
1. Cooking classes:
Subscribers pay a recurring fee for access to regular cooking classes, either in-person or virtual, taught by your chefs. This model extends your brand into an educational and experiential format.
- Best for: Fine dining restaurants, restaurants with a unique culinary niche (e.g., pasta-making, pastry), or establishments with a charismatic and skilled chef.
- Profitability boost: This creates a new, high-margin revenue stream that utilizes staff and space during off-peak hours. It also strengthens brand loyalty by giving customers a behind-the-scenes look at your craft, encouraging them to dine in more often and appreciate the skill behind the menu.
2. Snack or meal boxes:
Customers subscribe to receive a curated box of goods on a regular basis. This could be a weekly box of prepared meals, a monthly selection of house-made pantry items, or a themed snack box.
- Best for: Delis, bakeries, health-focused cafes and restaurants known for specific retail products like sauces, spices or cured meats.
- Profitability boost: Meal boxes generate revenue beyond your restaurant's physical capacity and allow you to batch-produce items efficiently, reducing waste and labor costs. Snack and pantry boxes turn your signature flavors into a retail product, creating a consistent income source independent of daily service.
3. Take out subscriptions:
This model allows customers to pay a flat monthly fee for a set number of takeout meals or a discount on all takeout orders. It simplifies the ordering process and rewards frequent customers.
- Best for: Fast-casual restaurants, ghost kitchens and any eatery with a strong lunch or dinner takeout business.
- Profitability boost: It secures guaranteed, upfront revenue and increases order frequency from your most loyal takeout customers. By locking in their business, you reduce reliance on costly third-party delivery apps and can better predict inventory needs, leading to more efficient operations.
4. Wine or beverage boxes:
Members receive a curated selection of wines, craft beers or batched cocktails each month. This program often includes perks like tasting notes, food pairing suggestions or exclusive access to "cellar" selections.
- Best for: Wine bars, gastropubs and restaurants with a strong beverage program or an in-house sommelier.
- Profitability boost: This model turns your beverage inventory into a reliable retail channel, allowing you to move specific products and improve inventory turnover. It drives high-margin sales and builds your reputation as a beverage destination, encouraging subscribers to dine in for the full experience.
5. Unlimited coffee or drinks:
For a low monthly fee, subscribers get unlimited access to select beverages like drip coffee, tea or fountain drinks. It's a low-cost, high-frequency model designed to drive traffic.
- Best for: Cafes, coffee shops, bakeries and fast-casual restaurants with high morning or all-day foot traffic.
- Profitability boost: While the margin on the subscription itself may be slim, its primary benefit is driving daily visits. Subscribers are highly likely to make additional purchases, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches or lunch, significantly increasing their average check size and overall lifetime value.
6. Exclusive dining clubs:
These membership programs offer diners access to premium perks, such as priority reservations, chef’s tasting events, off-menu items and invitations to private gatherings, usually by paying a significant annual or monthly fee.
- Best for: Fine dining restaurants, upscale establishments and venues with a discerning or loyal customer base looking for unique experiences.
- Profitability boost: Exclusive dining clubs generate high-margin revenue from membership fees and foster deep customer loyalty. Members, motivated by their investment and access to special events, tend to visit more frequently and are often willing to spend more per visit, driving profitable, long-term relationships with your guests.
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