September 19, 2025
This month we look at: coffee prices, how AI can help with managing guest feedback, average food costs for popular football apps, inflation and national restaurant sales trends from August.
Fall is here (almost)! Which means it's prime time for football, soup, flannel and pumpkin everything (although, I for one think maple-flavored offerings are giving ye olde PSL a run for its money). With all the gourdy goodness making its way onto our plates and menus, one has to ask: Is all that fiber good for us?
Probably, yes. But it brings to mind another trending topic that may or may not be good for us: AI. It’s everywhere, easy to try, and promises to make life simpler. Have you started using it in your restaurant yet?We’d love to hear how operators like you are experimenting with AI. Take our quick survey to share your experience—we’ll report back on what we learn from the community.
September inspired our Tis' the Season section below (more specifically, the start of the NFL season), but this month is also Hispanic Heritage Month, so we've put together a Gift Guide to celebrate and show some love for a community that is integral to our industry and country at large. If you're a Hispanic-owned or operated business that sells goodies online, shoot me an email to be featured and we'll include you!
Wishing you all a wonderful start to fall and we'll see you in October!
Know someone who would like to join our 100,886 subscribers? Forward to a friend or send them this link.
- Rachel & the MarginEdge team
P.S. If you took our very, very accurate Restaurant Personality Type quiz, your September mantras are here!
![[Sign up for our newsletter] Get sales data and restaurant insights straight to your inbox each month](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/6423873/2b19fcb4-92a7-41e5-8a2f-75a74dad0c24.png)
MONTHLY SALES METRICS & UPDATE
The trailing 4-week (28-day) average of year-over-year (YOY) sales for Fast Casual came in at +3.6% and Full Service at +1.4% at the end of August compared to 2024 sales.
Food costs averaged 28% of sales last month, representing a -1% decrease from the average in August.
ITEM TO WATCH
Coffee
Have you ever thought about what it would be like to explain coffee to an alien? We roast little beans until they're nearly burnt, grind them up and brew them into a bitter and intoxicating drink that is equal parts addicting and life-giving. It's incredible how strong a hold coffee has on humanity; most people can't go a day without it.
So when coffee prices start to tick up, we're morally (and exestentially?) obligated to talk about it.
Over the last 6 months, the median price per pound for whole bean coffee across MarginEdge clients increased by +4.1% and +14.3% from 12 months ago. Espresso also saw an increase, up +3.7% from 6 months ago, and +7.9% from September last year.
What's driving the increase? Tariffs. With 99% of all coffee consumed in the US coming from exports, the biggest impact has been from Brazil, which currently has a 50% tariff rate, with the rest coming from Colombia (at 10% tariffs) and Vietnam (at 20%). Barring a decision to lower tariffs, it's likely these prices will continue to stay high, and if extreme weather impacts growing cycles, consumers should be prepared for more jumps.
The Hive Catering Co. | Oregon City, OR
ASK [me] ANYTHING
How can I use AI to help with guest feedback?
Most restaurateurs check Google or Yelp reviews on the regular, but spot-checking or responding to comments on a case-by-case basis can prevent you from seeing the bigger picture of what your online reviews are telling you about your business. Not to mention, if your business is busier than ever, you might not have the time or resources to respond to reviews regularly.
AI can help. Whether you pull reviews manually and feed them into ChatGPT, or invest in a platform that does that for you, using AI to help manage online reviews, every operator can get started with relative ease. Here are 6 ways you should be using AI to help:
1. Analyze sentiment
- How it works: AI tools can continuously monitor multiple review platforms (Google, Yelp, TripAdvisor, etc.) and alert you to new reviews in real time.
- Benefit: Stay on top of customer feedback without manually checking each platform, ensuring you never miss an important review.
2. Automated review monitoring
- How it works: AI can analyze the tone of reviews (positive, negative, or neutral) and categorize them for quick insights.
- Benefit: Quickly identify trends in customer sentiment, such as recurring complaints or praise, and address issues proactively.
3. Auto-replies
- How it works: AI-powered tools can draft personalized responses to reviews, both positive and negative, based on the content of the review. This one comes with a heavy caveat: you should always keep an eye on the responses to ensure they align with your brand and hospitality.
- Benefit: Save time while maintaining a professional and consistent tone. For example, thank customers for positive feedback or apologize and offer solutions for negative experiences.
4. Keyword analysis
- How it works: AI can extract common themes or keywords from reviews, such as "great service," "long wait times," or "delicious desserts."
- Benefit: Understand what customers love and what needs improvement, helping you make data-driven decisions to enhance your offerings.
5. Competitor analysis
- How it works: AI can analyze reviews of your competitors to identify their strengths and weaknesses.
- Benefit: Gain a competitive edge by learning what customers appreciate about other restaurants and incorporating or differentiating from those elements in your business.
6. Issue resolution suggestions
- How it works: AI can flag negative reviews or recurring complaints and suggest actionable solutions.
- Benefit: Address issues quickly to prevent further negative feedback and show customers you care about their experience. Plus, AI tends to stay neutral even if or when you're feeling heated.
💬 Ask [me] anything!
Really. Each month we’ll take a look at the questions we get and answer one here. Have a question about our product, accounting, or restaurant operations in general? 💌 Email me or message us on our social media channels.
Salt & Vine | Olney, MD
THE ECONOMY
Inflation Up
The August 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is in, and indicates the following month-over-month changes in food inflation:
- Overall Food Inflation: Up at 0.5% from July, and is up 3.2% YOY.
- Food At Home: Up 0.6% from July, and is up 2.7% YOY.
- Food Away from Home: Up 0.3% from July, and is up 3.9% YOY.
- Limited Service Meals: Up 0.1% from July, and by 3.2% YOY.
-
Full Service Meals: Up 0.4% from July, and by 4.6% YOY.
Overall, inflation came in at 0.4% up from July, putting year-over-year inflation at 2.9%, an increase from last month's YOY. Outside of groceries, the largest contributor to the increase this past month was energy, specifically gasoline. In response to this and recent job numbers, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) and is projected to lower rates an additional 50 basis points by the end of the year.
Tl;dr - Both grocery and restaurant prices went up last month, but more so for groceries.
Wing Shack | Multiple locations, CO
'TIS THE SEASON
Football food costs
Whether you enjoy football for the game, the snacks or just the thrill of a nefarious prank awaiting an unlucky fantasy drafter at the end of the season, there's no denying the impact this time of year has on restaurants. We took a look at food costs across our 11,000+ clients to see what the median food costs are for some of the most popular football season foods, to shine a little light on which dishes have the best margins.
Chicken wings and pizza
As we see in the chart, median food costs for pizza menu items have stayed pretty consistent, with the median food cost being 18.3% over the last 6 months. Chicken wings, on the other hand, have had a more tumultuous ride, with a median food cost at 46.6% over the last 6 months.
Thankfully, that number has come down quite a bit, and if we dig into the median price that MarginEdge customers are paying for chicken wings by the pound below, we see a direct correlation between higher product prices and higher food costs.
What's [me] into😂 WHAT WE'RE LAUGHING AT
📖 WHAT WE'RE READING
🎧 WHAT WE'RE LISTENING TO
|
